PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 95%
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
7,9 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
4.0% / 5.8%
Écart
1.8 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
21
Variation 7j
-6.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
10 juin 26, 00:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will French journalist Christophe Gleizes be pardoned or released from Algerian detention before December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is convicted, will he be pardoned? (2028)
Manifold MarketsWill SBF be pardoned?
Manifold MarketsMaduro Prison Time?
PolymarketAny Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
PolymarketWill Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
- A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
- Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
- The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 Md €
- Volume 24h
- 2,1 M €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt16%
- Ron DeSantis-0.1pt3%
+39 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro-33.7pt51%
- Delcy Rodríguez+29.5pt42%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.3pt9.9%
- Volume total
- 29,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 621,6 k €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt94%
- Yes-2.0pt6%
- Volume total
- 19,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 488,8 k €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt59%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-1.3pt10%
+1 résultats de plus
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- What will Trump say this week?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 95% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET.