Will any January 6th participant pardoned/commuted by Trump be responsible for a homicide before 1/20/2027?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineCriminalité et justice2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 62.3%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète24 janv. 25, 20:54 UTC21 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Background President Trump has the pardoned or commuted the sentences of individuals involved in the January 6th Capitol riot, including individuals convicted for violent acts that occurred during those events.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:
- Any pardoned/commuted individual is found legally responsible (through conviction or guilty plea) for a homicide that occurs between their pardon/commutation and January 20, 2027
- The homicide can be of any type (first degree, second degree, manslaughter, etc.)
- The market will resolve NO if:
- No pardoned/commuted January 6th participant is found legally responsible for a homicide during the specified timeframe
