Probabilité implicite actuelle
1480+ 83%+1.5ptEn tête parmi 5 options
1480+ 83%+1.5ptQualité du marché
37 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
524,5 €
Liquidité
643 €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
8.0 pt
Spread largeCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 23 minutes
28 sept. 26, 14:29 UTC30 juin 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Polymarket
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Ordre minimum (parts):
- 5
- Pas de cotation:
- 1 points de pourcentage
- Frais:
- Oui
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next GPT Sol Model (6.1+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Grok Model (4.8+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketWhich AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3).
- Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Meta "Watermelon" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.