Probabilité implicite actuelle
121-124 29.2%En tête parmi 7 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
52 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
17,2 €
Liquidité
22,4 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
4.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
-13.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
19 août 26, 19:53 UTC12 oct. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiWill another French PM be appointed by the end of 2026?
FutuurRègles
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats.
- The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST.
- This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Les Républicains as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST.
- The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).
- A group will qualify as the Groupe Les Républicains if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes "Les Républicains" or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Les Républicains, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
- A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above.