PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 97%+0.1pt
Qualité du marché
68 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
211,1 €
Liquidité
15,2 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
1.7% / 3.3%
Écart
1.6 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
8
Variation 7j
-0.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
21 avr. 26, 18:19 UTC30 sept. 26, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?
Manifold MarketsWill Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWhich leaders will leave office in 2026?
KalshiRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Christopher Luxon out by September 30? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 97% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Christopher Luxon out by September 30? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Christopher Luxon out by September 30? doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment Christopher Luxon out by September 30? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).