Probabilité implicite actuelle
Non 99%+0.1pt
Qualité du marché
64 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
11,9 €
Liquidité
4,8 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
1.3% / 1.6%
Écart
0.3 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
5
Variation 7j
-0.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes
2 janv. 26, 20:40 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Polymarket5kt meteor strike in 2026?
Polymarket100kt meteor strike in 2026?
PolymarketWill a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?
KalshiWhat will happen in the rest of September? (20 mana bonus in description)
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
- The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/.
- The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column.
- If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
- $73,000 or above-1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 318,3 k €
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027-6.0pt69.5%
- Before March 2027+1.0pt18.1%
- Before February 20275.7%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $72,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 317,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 300,3 k €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+22.0pt51.5%
- 180-199-8.0pt26.7%
- 140-159+3.8pt15.8%
+23 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- October 31+2.8pt99%
- December 31+2.9pt99%
- September 30-6.5pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic89%
- OpenAI+0.1pt9%
- Google-0.2pt2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 9, 2026?
- Where will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 10, 2026?
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- ETH price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Las Vegas on Sep 9, 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 99% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.