Alerte qualité des donnéesPrix non significatif
Données au 7 août 2026, 15:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
JD Vance 47.3%En tête parmi 31 options
Qualite du marche
30 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
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Liquidité inconnueTraders
3,258
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 minutes
24 févr. 26, 12:357 nov. 28, 13:00
Tendances
Règles
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC, before Election Day begins. - **Resolution Deadline:** By January 20, 2029, or earlier once the outcome is determined by the resolution sources.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **candidate who wins the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election**. - If a Candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - The race will be resolved based on **when all three resolution sources — the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC — call the election for the same candidate**. - Once **all three** make the same call, the market immediately resolves to that candidate.
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - If, by January 20, 2029, the three resolution sources have **not** unanimously called the same winner, the market will resolve based on who is inaugurated as President of the United States. - If any of the three sources retracts, reverses, or updates its projection before unanimity is reached, the market will wait for the next moment when all three agree. - Provisional or partial calls by only one or two outlets will not trigger resolution.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Référence CoinRithm JD Vance 23% · 7 plateformes · 5 pt d’ecart entre venues
- Également disponible sur Manifold Markets — Who will be elected President in 2028? (limited choices) · J.D. Vance 19%
- Également disponible sur Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winner · JVAN 22%
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 23%
- Également disponible sur Smarkets — 2028 Presidential Election Winner · JD Vance 18%
- Également disponible sur Limitless — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 20%
- Également disponible sur Futuur — US Presidential Election Winner in 2028 · Gavin Newsom 28%
- Également disponible sur PredictIt — Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? · JD Vance 22%
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? · J.D. Vance 19%
Marchés ouverts
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18.8%
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt12.9%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 165,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2 M €
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham-1.0pt58.7%
- Ralph Norman33%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 14 M €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 9,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 947,7 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+3.0pt76%
- October 31+7.5pt60%
- September 30+5.0pt41%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva61.8%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.8pt34.3%
- Renan Santos-0.6pt2.9%
+15 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party85.9%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.1%
- Volume total
- 21,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 468,3 k €
- Next French Presidential Election
- South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff margin of victory?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Ohio Governor winner?
- Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US Presidential Election Winner 2028 ?
- Myriad cote JD Vance à 47% au 25 août 2026.
- Quand US Presidential Election Winner 2028 sera-t-il résolu ?
- US Presidential Election Winner 2028 doit être résolu le 7 novembre 2028.
- Comment US Presidential Election Winner 2028 est-il réglé ?
- Myriad règle ce marché comme suit : ### **Market Dates:**
- Où US Presidential Election Winner 2028 est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Manifold Markets, Robinhood (Rothera), Polymarket, Smarkets, Limitless, Futuur, PredictIt, Kalshi.