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Données au 10 oct. 2026, 07:01 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Probabilité implicite actuelle
JD Vance 41.2%-0.1ptEn tête parmi 31 options
Qualité du marché
22 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
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Liquidité inconnueTraders
3,596
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
24 févr. 26, 12:35 UTC7 nov. 28, 13:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
PolymarketWill Marco Rubio win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2028 US presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
LimitlessRègles
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC, before Election Day begins. - **Resolution Deadline:** By January 20, 2029, or earlier once the outcome is determined by the resolution sources.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **candidate who wins the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election**. - If a Candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - The race will be resolved based on **when all three resolution sources — the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC — call the election for the same candidate**. - Once **all three** make the same call, the market immediately resolves to that candidate.
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - If, by January 20, 2029, the three resolution sources have **not** unanimously called the same winner, the market will resolve based on who is inaugurated as President of the United States. - If any of the three sources retracts, reverses, or updates its projection before unanimity is reached, the market will wait for the next moment when all three agree. - Provisional or partial calls by only one or two outlets will not trigger resolution.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Manifold Markets — Will the 2028 presidential election winner be a millennial? · No 81%
- Également disponible sur Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winner · JVAN 27%
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 19%
- Également disponible sur Smarkets — 2028 Presidential Election Winner · JD Vance 18%
- Également disponible sur Limitless — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 19%
- — US Presidential Election Winner in 2028
