FutuurVérifier la disponibilitéDonnées de résolution vérifiéesProbabilité implicite actuelleJD Vance 28%En tête parmi 5 options
Qualité du marché
31 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
5,3 k €
Liquidité moyenneTraders
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Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, will cannabis be decriminalized or legalized by the midterms?
Manifold MarketsWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
PolymarketWill Marco Rubio win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastEx2028 US Presidential Election winner?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This set of markets predicts the winner of the November 7, 2028, U.S. presidential general election.
- Each market below corresponds to one candidate, of which exactly one will resolve "Yes".
- Resolution is intended to occur within days of election day, not to wait for Electoral College certification.
- The Primary Designated Source is the Associated Press presidential race call.
- Resolution is triggered as soon as the AP has called the race and at least two of the following also call the same winner: Reuters, Fox News, The New York Times.
- In the case of a major discrepancy between these sources that persists beyond seven days after election day, resolution will instead be based on the aggregate of official state-certified results from each state's Secretary of State office, determining which candidate holds a majority of Electoral College votes.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Manifold Markets — Will the 2028 presidential election winner be a millennial? · No 81%
- Également disponible sur Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winner · JVAN 27%
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 19%
- Également disponible sur Limitless — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 19%
- Également disponible sur Smarkets — 2028 Presidential Election Winner · JD Vance 18%
- — Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
