Alerte qualité des donnéesPrix non significatif
Données au 7 août 2026, 15:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Gavin Newsom 44.3%En tête parmi 32 options
Qualite du marche
30 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
—
Liquidité inconnueTraders
5,243
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
24 févr. 26, 14:411 janv. 00, 0:01
Tendances
Règles
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until the nomination is officially determined. - **Market Close:** This market remains open until a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The market will resolve as soon as an outcome is reached.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **individual candidate who officially wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States**. - If a candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - Confirmation will rely on the Democratic Party’s **official communications**, as well as reporting from: - **Associated Press** - **Reuters** - **Fox News**
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - Once the Democratic National Committee (DNC) or the candidate formally announces and accepts the nomination, the market resolves immediately. - If a candidate later withdraws, is replaced, or is removed before Election Day, this does not impact the already resolved outcome. - Superdelegate counts, internal party projections, or unofficial announcements are insufficient unless they are formally confirmed by the party or supported by the resolution sources.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Référence CoinRithm Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18% · 5 plateformes · 3 pt d’ecart entre venues
- Également disponible sur Manifold Markets — Democratic Nominee for 2028 Presidential Election · Gavin Newsom 24%
- Également disponible sur Smarkets — Democratic Presidential Nominee · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18%
- Également disponible sur Gemini — 2028 Democratic Nominee for President? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 22%
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 19%
- Également disponible sur Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee · AOCA 20%
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 21%
- Également disponible sur Limitless — Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 20%
- Également disponible sur ForecastEx — Will J.B. Pritzker win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028? · No 96%
Marchés ouverts
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18.8%
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt12.9%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 165,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2 M €
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham-1.0pt58.7%
- Ralph Norman33%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 14 M €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 9,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 947,7 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+3.0pt76%
- October 31+7.5pt60%
- September 30+5.0pt41%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva61.8%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.8pt34.3%
- Renan Santos-0.6pt2.9%
+15 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party85.9%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.1%
- Volume total
- 21,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 468,3 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 ?
- Myriad cote Gavin Newsom à 44% au 25 août 2026.
- Quand Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2100.
- Comment Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 est-il réglé ?
- Myriad règle ce marché comme suit : ### **Market Dates:**
- Où Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Manifold Markets, Smarkets, Gemini, Kalshi, Robinhood (Rothera), Polymarket, Limitless, ForecastEx.