Alerte qualité des donnéesPrix non significatif
Données au 10 juil. 2026, 06:13 UTC · politique pm-quality-2
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Gavin Newsom 48.3%+0.1%En tête parmi 32 options
Qualite du marche
28 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
0 €
Liquidité
0 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
-
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
24 févr. 26, 14:411 janv. 00, 0:01
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Gavin Newsom48%
Comparer les plateformes· Gavin Newsom
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMeilleur global78% de correspondance · auto | Moyenne | 19% | 0pt | 993 k € | 62 M € | il y a 11 minutes | Ouvrir → |
 Kalshi74% de correspondance · auto | Moyenne | 19% | 0pt | 342,6 k € | 87,7 M € | il y a 6 minutes | Ouvrir → |
 Smarkets64% de correspondance · lié | Faible | 21% | +2pt | 0,9 € | 0 € | il y a 3 minutes | Ouvrir → |
 MyriadCette page | Faible | 48% | +29pt | 0 € | 0 € | il y a 3 minutes | |
 Limitless78% de correspondance · lié | Faible | 23% | +4pt | 0 € | 0 € | il y a 4 minutes | Ouvrir → |
 Manifold Markets78% de correspondance · lié | — | 20% | +1pt | — | — | il y a 30 jours | Ouvrir → |
| Manifold Markets78% de correspondance · lié | — | 22% | +3pt | — | — | avant-hier | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Polymarket
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2a
-0.4%19%
-0.9%14%
-2.1%10%
+125 résultats de plus
73 • Qualité moyenneSpread largeLiquidité élevée
Volume total1,1 Md €
Volume 24h993 k €
POLYMARKETÉgalement disponible sur Manifold Markets
Democratic Nominee for 2028 Presidential Election
1a
7.1%
20%
6%
+14 résultats de plus
Prévision communautaire21 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSÉgalement disponible sur Manifold Markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2a
-0.1%21.7%
+0.6%11.7%
-0.1%6.5%
+5 résultats de plus
Prévision communautaire13 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSÉgalement disponible sur Limitless
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2a
23%
13.9%
5.5%
+3 résultats de plus
28 • Faible qualitéSpread inconnuFaible liquiditéMarché peu profond
Volume total10,7 k €
Volume 24h0 €
LIMITLESSÉgalement disponible sur Kalshi
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
0.1%2a
-0.1%0%
-0.1%1%
+0.1%4%
+43 résultats de plus
73 • Qualité moyenneSpread largeLiquidité élevée
Volume total128,9 M €
Volume 24h342,6 k €
KALSHIÉgalement disponible sur Smarkets
Democratic Presidential Nominee
13.5%
0.1%
2.6%
+19 résultats de plus
32 • Faible qualitéSpread inconnuFaible liquiditéMarché peu profond
Volume total9,2 k €
Volume 24h0,9 €
SMARKETSRègles
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until the nomination is officially determined. - **Market Close:** This market remains open until a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The market will resolve as soon as an outcome is reached.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **individual candidate who officially wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States**. - If a candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - Confirmation will rely on the Democratic Party’s **official communications**, as well as reporting from: - **Associated Press** - **Reuters** - **Fox News**
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - Once the Democratic National Committee (DNC) or the candidate formally announces and accepts the nomination, the market resolves immediately. - If a candidate later withdraws, is replaced, or is removed before Election Day, this does not impact the already resolved outcome. - Superdelegate counts, internal party projections, or unofficial announcements are insufficient unless they are formally confirmed by the party or supported by the resolution sources.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
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### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until the nomination is officially determined. - **Market Close:** This market remains open until a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The market will resolve as soon as an outcome is reached.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **individual candidate who officially wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States**. - If a candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - Confirmation will rely on the Democratic Party’s **official communications**, as well as reporting from: - **Associated Press** - **Reuters** - **Fox News**
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - Once the Democratic National Committee (DNC) or the candidate formally announces and accepts the nomination, the market resolves immediately. - If a candidate later withdraws, is replaced, or is removed before Election Day, this does not impact the already resolved outcome. - Superdelegate counts, internal party projections, or unofficial announcements are insufficient unless they are formally confirmed by the party or supported by the resolution sources.