Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 76%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète7 juin 26, 22:00 UTC31 août 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?
PolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Kalshi2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee
Robinhood (Rothera)Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Manifold MarketsAge of 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the official Democratic nominee for President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election is a woman.
- It will resolve to NO if the nominee is a man or does not identify as a woman.
- Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by the official nomination at the 2028 Democratic National Convention (scheduled for August 7–10, 2028) or the official nominee certified by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) if the selection is conducted via an alternative official process (e.g., a virtual roll call).
- Gender Identity: The gender of the nominee will be determined by their public self-identification at the time of nomination.
- Edge Cases: If a candidate is officially nominated but subsequently withdraws, dies, or is replaced after the formal conclusion of the nominating convention or official selection process, the market will still resolve based on the identity of the person who originally accepted the nomination.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.5pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 Md €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8 M €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+44.0pt57.4%
- Nicolás Maduro-40.9pt41.6%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.7%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 résultats de plus
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- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 76% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? doit être résolu le 31 août 2028.
- Comment Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria
- Où Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur PredictIt, Polymarket.