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Données au 10 oct. 2026, 07:31 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Probabilité implicite actuelle
JD Vance 48.6%-0.1ptEn tête parmi 32 options
Qualité du marché
22 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
—
Liquidité inconnueTraders
5,221
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
24 févr. 26, 14:33 UTC1 janv. 00, 00:01 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will be the first time a Republican presidential candidate wins D.C.?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?
PolymarketWill a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?
KalshiRepublican Presidential Nominee
SmarketsWill JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028?
FutuurWill the Republican presidential nominee in 2028 win any state Trump didn't win?
Manifold MarketsRègles
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until the nomination is officially determined. - **Market Close:** This market remains open until a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The market will resolve as soon as an outcome is reached.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **individual candidate who officially wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for President of the United States**. - If candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - Confirmation will rely on the Republican Party’s **official communications**, as well as reporting from: - **Associated Press** - **Reuters** - **Fox News**
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - Once the Republican National Committee (RNC) or the candidate formally announces and accepts the nomination, the market resolves immediately. - If a candidate later withdraws, is replaced, or is removed before Election Day, this does not impact the already resolved outcome. - Superdelegate counts, internal party projections, or unofficial announcements are insufficient unless they are formally confirmed by the party or supported by the resolution sources.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Limitless — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance 24%
- Également disponible sur Manifold Markets — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance 46%
- Également disponible sur PredictIt — Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · JD Vance 40%
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance 48%
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — 2028 Republican presidential nominee · J.D. Vance 43%
- — Republican Presidential Nominee
