Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
GéopolitiqueMetaculusFerméDonnées de résolution non vérifiéesCe marché s'est résolu: No
Données de résolution non vérifiées
Ce résultat est inféré ou n'est pas appuyé par des preuves de règlement de niveau fournisseur.
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 99.9%
Prévisionnistes
978
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Community forecast
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 146 jours
Obsolète15 nov. 16, 19:46 UTC31 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Chronologie des Probabilités
Yes0.1%
No99.9%
99.9%
0.1%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).
- Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
- We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
- This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
- It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? ?
- Metaculus cote No à 100% au 27 avril 2026.
- Quand Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Metaculus règle ce marché comme suit : Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).