Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 97.4%
Prévisionnistes
36
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète21 avr. 25, 13:08 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
The Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketWill half life 3 release before The Winds of Winter?
Manifold MarketsWhich will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)?
Manifold MarketsAny one of Half Life 3, the Winds of Winter, or Elder Scrolls 6 announced before the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Netflix Studios Fort Monmouth Phase 1B be completed before winter 2028?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R.R. Martin's novel The Winds of Winter is officially published on or before December 31, 2026.
- The market will resolve to "No" if the novel is not published by that date.
- Official publication is defined as the book being made available for purchase by the general public in any format (print, digital, or audio) through recognized retailers or platforms.
- The Winds of Winter is the anticipated sixth installment in George R.R. Martin's epic fantasy series, A Song of Ice and Fire.
- The previous book, A Dance with Dragons, was released in 2011.
Marchés ouverts
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.0pt69.6%
- 940 - 950m-16.5pt26.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
- 98 k €
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+25.0pt67%
- Callum Turner-3.0pt21%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt20%
+27 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-6.3pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.5pt9%
+21 résultats de plus
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 80 k €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 130,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 45,3 k €
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4 M €
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- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Winds of Winter released before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 97% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Winds of Winter released before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Winds of Winter released before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Winds of Winter released before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria: