PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 93%
Qualité du marché
49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,8 k €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
4.5% / 9.7%
Écart
5.2 pt
Spread largeCommentaires
15
Variation 7j
+0.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
16 janv. 26, 00:33 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
The Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWinds of Winter released before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill half life 3 release before The Winds of Winter?
Manifold MarketsWhich will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)?
Manifold MarketsWill Netflix Studios Fort Monmouth Phase 1B be completed before winter 2028?
Kalshi"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution.
- The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify.
- This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
Marchés ouverts
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.0pt69.6%
- 940 - 950m-16.5pt26.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 319,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 98 k €
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+25.0pt67%
- Callum Turner-3.0pt21%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt20%
+27 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-6.3pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.5pt9%
+21 résultats de plus
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 80 k €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 130,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 45,3 k €
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4 M €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released.