Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore 2036 66%-1.2ptEn tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+0.4 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète22 févr. 26, 18:36 UTC1 janv. 51, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Winds of Winter released before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity returns to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next game of thrones book by GRR Martin - "winds of winter", be released?
Manifold MarketsThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRègles
The Winds of Winter is the planned sixth novel in A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin.
- Each threshold resolves YES if the book is officially published and available for purchase in any format (print, digital, or audio) through at least one major retailer (e.g., Amazon, Barnes & Noble, or equivalent) before the listed date.
- If the novel is split into multiple volumes, the first volume's publication date counts.
- A title change does not affect resolution as long as it is marketed as the sixth ASOIAF novel.
- Each threshold resolves NO if George R. R. Martin dies before the book's official publication date, even if a completed manuscript exists.
- Posthumous publication does not count.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 944,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 721,8 k €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Volume total
- 620 k €
- Volume 24h
- 536 k €
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume total
- 514,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 496,9 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will the Winds of Winter be released? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Before 2036 à 66% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will the Winds of Winter be released? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will the Winds of Winter be released? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2051.
- Comment When will the Winds of Winter be released? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The Winds of Winter is the planned sixth novel in A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin.