Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 85.1%
Prévisionnistes
57
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète18 janv. 24, 21:10 UTC1 mars 00, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we get room temperature superconductors before we discover alien life?
Manifold MarketsWill we discover alien life before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill we discover alien life before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiNatural Disaster in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created before we discover alien life.
- AGI questions:
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will we get AGI before we discover alien life? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 85% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will we get AGI before we discover alien life? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will we get AGI before we discover alien life? doit être résolu le 1 mars 2100.
- Comment Will we get AGI before we discover alien life? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.