Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 91%
Prévisionnistes
41
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète9 janv. 24, 13:25 UTC1 mars 31, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we have contact with intelligent alien life by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before we discover alien life?
Manifold MarketsWill we discover alien life before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiNatural Disaster in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves as YES if we discover strong evidence of past or present extra-terrestrial life before January 1st 2031.
- This question includes but is not limited to the detection of biosignatures/technosignatures in our solar system, around other stars or distant galaxies.
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-031ec0858fcc
- @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-cbfe304a2ed7
- @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-54f04dd10acb
Marchés ouverts
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.3pt97%
- Yes+0.3pt3%
- Volume total
- 15,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 35,6 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Volume total
- 83,5 k €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 864,2 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume total
- 915,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 k €
KALSHIWhen will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Before July 2027+67.0pt97%
- Before 202872%
- Before October 202752%
- Volume total
- 4,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will we discover alien life before 2031? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will we discover alien life before 2031? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will we discover alien life before 2031? doit être résolu le 1 mars 2031.
- Comment Will we discover alien life before 2031? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as YES if we discover strong evidence of past or present extra-terrestrial life before January 1st 2031.