Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 69% au 30 octobre 2026.

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

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Mis à jour il y a 19 heures

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28 avr. 25, 04:20 UTC7 nov. 28, 23:59 UTC

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I have bet @CrypticQccZ at 9:1 odds that at least 100K people worldwide will belong to successionist movements/religions by November 7, 2028.

I will pay them $900 if this market resolves NO, and he will pay me $100 if it resolves YES.
There are two independent pathways to a YES resolution (the bet resolves YES if either group described below encompasses more than 100K individuals):
Resolves to majority vote of 3 independent observers chosen by both of us on Nov 7, 2028.
In the likely event that successionist groups exist in some form, but clear numbers are not available, judges will make an honest attempt to make a point estimate of the number of people who belong to groups matching the description of each of the following two pathways to a YES resolution.
First pathway to a YES resolution: 100,000 or more people worldwide belong to successionist ideological movements or political causes.