Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 58.1%
Prévisionnistes
41
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète24 oct. 22, 05:34 UTC1 janv. 53, 06:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Title:Will a Kessler Syndrome cascade begin in Low Earth Orbit before 2046?
Manifold MarketsKessler Syndrome before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions of orbital debris) be observed before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill Planet 9's existence be verified by 2030?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This resolves YES if we have experienced Kessler syndrome by the end of 2052.
- Some signs that Kessler syndome has occurred:
- The collisions are cascading, i.e. it's not just debris from one collision that disables other satellites, but debris from those collisions must themselves result in debris that disables other satellites.
- A short timescale: If the rate of destruction of satellites spikes over the course of a few days or weeks, I'm inclined to call that Kessler syndrome.
- If it goes up over the course of years, I'm inclined to say that the space community is simply more tolerant of accepting losses due to chance and a higher debris environment.
- There is damage to space infrastructure: If 50% of satellites launched after 2020 cannot be deorbited before they are destroyed, or are forced to deorbit early, that suggests Kessler syndrome.