Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 69.6%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
24 avr. 26, 21:36 UTC31 déc. 45, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be Kessler Syndrome before 2053?
Manifold MarketsKessler Syndrome before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions of orbital debris) be observed before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf Elon goes to space within his lifetime, will he go past Low Earth Orbit?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves YES if all of the following occur before January 1, 2046:
- A collision between two objects in Low Earth Orbit (below 2,000 km altitude) produces 500 or more newly tracked debris objects, as reported by US Space Command or ESA's Space Debris Office.
- Within 24 months of that collision, at least one additional unplanned satellite or debris collision is formally attributed — by a government space agency or peer-reviewed publication — to debris generated by the triggering event.
- A major space agency (NASA, ESA, JAXA, or Roscosmos) or the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs publicly states that the cascade poses an ongoing uncontrolled risk to that orbital shell.
- All three criteria must be met.
- A single large collision with no follow-on cascade does not resolve YES.