Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 05:51 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 66.6%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète19 mai 26, 20:40 UTC19 mai 76, 20:38 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Title:Will a Kessler Syndrome cascade begin in Low Earth Orbit before 2046?
Manifold MarketsWill Bishop Daniel Flores become the first Bishop of Martian land within his lifetime?
Manifold MarketsTrump goes to space in 2026?
PolymarketTrump goes to space in 2028? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsHow Long Until We Have A President Who Goes To Space?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves Yes if Elon Musk personally flies aboard a spacecraft that reaches an altitude exceeding 2,000 km above Earth's surface (or achieves a trajectory that escapes Low Earth Orbit) at any point before his death.
- It resolves No only if he does fly to space (crossing the Kármán line at 100 km) during his lifetime but all of his spaceflights remain in Low Earth Orbit (maximum altitude below 2,000 km).
- The market will be voided (N/A) if Elon Musk never flies to space at all before his death.
