Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 98.2%
Prévisionnistes
156
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète21 mai 24, 08:49 UTC31 déc. 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be an assassination attempt on David Baszucki before 2027?
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PolymarketAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Polymarket#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)
PolymarketRègles
Criteria for Resolution:
- Assassination Attempt: An assassination attempt is defined as any deliberate action intended to kill the CEO of a major AI lab.
- The attempt must be publicly reported and confirmed by credible sources, such as news agencies, law enforcement reports, or official statements from the affected company.
- Major AI Labs: Currently, the definition of major AI labs for this question includes OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind.
- As time progresses, new labs can be added or removed from this list, but the labs must be generally considered top-tier in the AI research and development field.
- The total number of labs on the list will not exceed five at any given time.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.1pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+2.1pt14.9%
- Gemini-3.0pt9.3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 124,1 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt76%
- December 15,+6.0pt73%
- November 30,+2.0pt52%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt98%
- October 31-1.2pt97%
- September 30+5.0pt94%
+5 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+3.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,9 M €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+5.5pt92%
- Moonshot-4.9pt7%
- Z.ai-0.5pt1%
+8 résultats de plus
- Best AI this week
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 98% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Criteria for Resolution: