Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 90.2%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète23 nov. 24, 12:02 UTC2 janv. 27, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a successful vote of no confidence in France in 2026?
KalshiWill There Be a Successful Assassination of RFK Jr. Before December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)
Manifold MarketsWill there be a successful legal challenge to the US tariffs on Brazil that started July 22
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves YES if a peer-reviewed research paper or major tech company publication (e.g. from Google, Meta, X.AI, OpenAI, or Anthropic) by 1/1/2027 demonstrates successful application of diffusion-like techniques (noising and trained denoising) to directly modify LLM weights usefully toward some safety or capabilities-relevant downstream purpose.
- Resolution will be based on papers indexed on arXiv.org or published on major AI research blogs.
