Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 58.1%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète8 mars 24, 14:27 UTC16 déc. 40, 02:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a successful manned mission to Mars by 2030?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurWill there be a successful legal challenge to the US tariffs on Brazil that started July 22
Manifold MarketsWhat will OpenAI do before IPO that is easier as a private company? [Add answers]
Manifold MarketsLargest private company end of September?
Polymarket2nd largest private company end of September?
PolymarketRègles
In this NASA article https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/humans-to-mars/, and this interview by Elon Musk talking about SpaceX plans https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029 express their dedication to advancing technologies for human missions to Mars.
- NASA underscores its commitment to developing new technologies on its official website, while Elon Musk hints at a manned mission to Mars in 2029 during an interview.
- These statements indicate a shared interest in sending manned missions to the Red Planet.
- Will any of them be successful by the end of 2040 ?
- the mission would be considered successful by the following criteria :
- Safe Arrival: The spacecraft carrying the astronauts safely lands on the surface of Mars without any major incidents or malfunctions.
Marchés ouverts
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6 k €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- 736,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 58% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ? doit être résolu le 16 décembre 2040.
- Comment Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In this NASA article https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/humans-to-mars/, and this interview by Elon Musk talking about SpaceX plans https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029 express their dedication to advancing technologies for human missions to Mars.