Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?
Health & MedicineOne-Off17aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 62.3%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète29 févr. 24, 11:21 UTC1 mars 44, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
For the purpose of this market, a pandemic is “at least as deadly as COVID-19” if, by 1st March 2044, there have been more deaths caused by the pathogen since the beginning of this market than COVID-19 caused throughout its entire pandemic stage.
- The source for the numbers of deaths will be the official WHO site or, if the WHO ceases to exist, some suitable successor.
- Multiple mutations of the same pathogen (e.g. the original C19 and the omicron variant of C19) count as a single pandemic, with the exception of seasonal flu.
- Mutations of some other variant of flu (e.g. bird flu) do count as a single pandemic.
- Man-made pathogens count for this market as long as they spread primarily through human-to-human transmission.
- Man-made pathogens which do not spread much between individuals (e.g. anthrax) do not count.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 62% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044? doit être résolu le 1 mars 2044.
- Comment Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : For the purpose of this market, a pandemic is “at least as deadly as COVID-19” if, by 1st March 2044, there have been more deaths caused by the pathogen since the beginning of this market than COVID-19 caused throughout its entire pandemic stage.