Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2028?
One-OffSanté et médecineSociété et culture1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 60%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète14 juil. 23, 13:28 UTC2 janv. 28, 12:30 UTC
Tendances
Règles
For this question to resolve YES, reports/publications/data from a sufficiently conventionally high-status source (e.g. the UN Population Division, the World Bank, the CIA World Factbook, the Population Reference Bureau) need to come out before 2028 claiming that the world's Total Fertility Rate is below 2.1 (replacement level can change depending on mortality rates, but 2.1 is the figure for the purposes of this question).
- Not that publications after 2028 that make this claim are not eligible to count towards this question, even if they concern time periods before 2028.
- The actual claim itself that humanity has fallen below replacement level needs to be made before 2028.
- I will use my discretion on what sources I will count.
- Feel free to ask about sources ahead of time.
