Will the US enter a depression if the Republicans win the midterms?
ÉconomieOne-OffPolitiquePolitique américaineÉlection2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.4%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 31 minutes
13 oct. 26, 04:48 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US enter a depression if the Democrats win the midterms?
Manifold MarketsHow many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
PolymarketHow many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
KalshiHow many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
KalshiIf Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Depression defined as
- a 10% decrease in GDP, OR
- an economic contraction lasting 3 or more years, OR
- unemployment rates >20%, OR
- 2 years of deflation due to decreased demand (must be combined with other spikes, e.g. high unemployment >10% but not reaching 20%, or significant underemployment where everyone is driving Uber or other gigwork, and/or a significant decrease in GDP >5% but that does not quite reach 10%), OR
- Widespread banking collapse, debt defaults, lots of lost money, (must be combined with other spikes, see previous point)