Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 55.7%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète19 juil. 26, 12:29 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?
Manifold Marketswill a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
Manifold MarketsWill any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
MetaculusDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that, during 2029, the United Kingdom had significantly greater overall access to US frontier AI than France.
- “Access” includes the practical ability of individuals, companies, researchers, and government bodies to use, purchase, deploy, host, or build upon frontier AI models or systems developed by US-based companies.
- Relevant differences may arise from laws, export controls, licensing rules, commercial availability, government agreements, compute restrictions, security requirements, or other meaningful barriers.
- The comparison should consider the whole of 2029.
- A brief or trivial difference is insufficient.
- The market may resolve YES where the UK had materially greater access for one or more non-trivial periods, provided that the UK’s advantage was also significant overall when the full year is considered.
Marchés ouverts
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the UK have greater access to US frontier AI than France in 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 56% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the UK have greater access to US frontier AI than France in 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the UK have greater access to US frontier AI than France in 2029? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will the UK have greater access to US frontier AI than France in 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that, during 2029, the United Kingdom had significantly greater overall access to US frontier AI than France.