Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 55.7%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète19 juil. 26, 12:29 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the "core" Jewish population of the UK be greater than that of Canada by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enact binding pre-deployment evals with power to block frontier AI releases, before 2030?
Manifold MarketsFrontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?
PolymarketFrontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that, during 2029, the United Kingdom had significantly greater overall access to US frontier AI than France.
- “Access” includes the practical ability of individuals, companies, researchers, and government bodies to use, purchase, deploy, host, or build upon frontier AI models or systems developed by US-based companies.
- Relevant differences may arise from laws, export controls, licensing rules, commercial availability, government agreements, compute restrictions, security requirements, or other meaningful barriers.
- The comparison should consider the whole of 2029.
- A brief or trivial difference is insufficient.
- The market may resolve YES where the UK had materially greater access for one or more non-trivial periods, provided that the UK’s advantage was also significant overall when the full year is considered.
