Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 97%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète21 juil. 24, 13:09 UTC16 août 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhat Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Reform UK vote percent
KalshiCalifornia Recall Election Reform Proposition
PolymarketNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketRègles
When and if the actual name of The Startup Party is announced, I will edit this market to reflect that.
- For information about The Startup Party, see https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/4-the-startup-party-time-to-build.
- I will use my judgement to identify The Startup Party.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 691,8 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,6 M €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 97% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will? doit être résolu le 16 août 2029.
- Comment Will The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : When and if the actual name of The Startup Party is announced, I will edit this market to reflect that.