Prévision communautaire actuelle
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK 100%En tête parmi 10 options
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK 100%Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 35 minutes
12 juil. 24, 17:20 UTC30 juin 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform UK top the YouGov voting intention poll at the time of the next UK general election, but lose?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk donate at least £10 million to Reform UK before the next general election?
Manifold MarketsWill The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will win the next UK general election?
KalshiRègles
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge? Will there be many defections from one to the other? Will they form an electoral pact in the next election?
- Please feel free to request additional answers to be added.
- I've decided to keep control over adding answers so I can make sure they're worded in a way that is either unambiguous or that I am happy to arbitrate on, but I'm very open to suggestions.
- I'm inclined not to add lots of options for individual Conservative MPs defecting to Reform UK just because there's so many of them.
- Maybe a separate market for that?
- For the ones about defections, they need to cross from one party to the other.