Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 73.9%
Prévisionnistes
149
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète13 août 24, 23:58 UTC15 août 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which UK political figures will defect to Reform UK before the next election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketUK election called by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Win as in forms the next government.
- In the case of a coalition, if reform is the larger party in the coalition I will resolve yes, otherwise if they are the minor party in the coalition I will cancel the market and return funds.
- This seems fairest to me as even if they are in government I wouldn’t say they have technically “won” being a the smaller party of a coalition, and they haven’t really lost, either.
- List of my other reform related markets:
- https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-win-less-than-50-seats
- https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-uk-and-the-conservative
