Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 07:32 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Suella Braverman 100%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète14 janv. 26, 11:11 UTC14 août 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketUK election called by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for any UK political figure who defects to Reform UK before the date of the next election.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Reform UK and reporting in established media outlets (BBC, Telegraph, Guardian).
- Each answer resolves independently, multiple politicians can resolve YES.
- I've added some people who have been speculated in the past, feel free to add more as I'm sure more figures will be named in future.
- I kept the title vague: feel free to add any people who have at any time been elected to a position in the UK (Councillor, Mayor, PCC, MP, MSP, AM, MS), any sitting or previously sitting lords, or any high profile aides/political employees (Morgan McSweeney, Dominic Cummings types).
