Will the OpenAI/DoD deal result in meaningful negative consequences for OpenAI by the end of 2028?
PolitiqueIAOne-OffUS Politics2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète28 févr. 26, 16:56 UTC31 déc. 28, 16:48 UTC
Tendances
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KalshiRègles
Examples of what I would consider meaningful negative impacts:
- A significant drop in userbase or subscribers that seems to be connected
- Impactful hostile government action targeting OpenAI or Sam Altman by e.g. a Democratic controlled congress
- Retribution from the Trump administration because OpenAI reneged on the deal
- This may resolve YES early if something significant and unambiguously negative happens.
- If it is ambiguous, I will not resolve hastily and may extend the resolution deadline until I am convinced one way or the other.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the OpenAI/DoD deal result in meaningful negative consequences for OpenAI by the end of 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 80% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the OpenAI/DoD deal result in meaningful negative consequences for OpenAI by the end of 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the OpenAI/DoD deal result in meaningful negative consequences for OpenAI by the end of 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will the OpenAI/DoD deal result in meaningful negative consequences for OpenAI by the end of 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Examples of what I would consider meaningful negative impacts: