Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffTrade PolicyIA1moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.8%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète16 févr. 26, 17:57 UTC31 oct. 26, 17:57 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US impose antidumping duties on Russian palladium imports by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill palladium prices increase by more than 5% due to U.S. antidumping duties on Russian supply by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
PolymarketHow many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia (case A-821-840, HTS 7110.21.0000) is published in the Federal Register by October 31, 2026.
- This requires both Commerce final affirmative determination AND USITC final affirmative injury determination.
- Timeline & Probabilities:
- 📅 Feb 10, 2026: Prelim AD announced • Russia-wide margin: 132.83%
- 📅 By Mar 1, 2026: Federal Register publication (85% probability) • Legal trigger for statutory deadlines and cash deposits
- 📅 By Jun 30, 2026: Commerce final affirmative AD determination (75%) • Expected ~Apr 28, 2026 unless extended • Final rate uncertain (separate market for rate prediction) • Prelim reference point: 132.83%
Marchés ouverts
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.4pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 335,1 k €
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
- United Russia (ER)+0.7pt100%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.2pt0%
- A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)0%
+5 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 202714%
- December7%
- September 30,-0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 19,9 M €
POLYMARKETKanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- No-5.5pt75%
- Yes+5.5pt25%
- Volume total
- 345,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 45,3 k €
POLYMARKETBank of Russia decision in September?
- No Change+1.5pt69.3%
- Decrease27.7%
- Increase-0.1pt3%
- Volume total
POLYMARKETRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Volume total
- 516,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 43 k €
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will Russia capture Orikhiv by which date?
- Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
- Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 96% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026? doit être résolu le 31 octobre 2026.
- Comment Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia (case A-821-840, HTS 7110.21.0000) is published in the Federal Register by October 31, 2026.