Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026?
Russie / UkraineOne-OffPolitique commercialeIA4jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 99%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
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Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète16 févr. 26, 17:57 UTC31 oct. 26, 17:57 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia (case A-821-840, HTS 7110.21.0000) is published in the Federal Register by October 31, 2026.
- This requires both Commerce final affirmative determination AND USITC final affirmative injury determination.
- Timeline & Probabilities:
- 📅 Feb 10, 2026: Prelim AD announced • Russia-wide margin: 132.83%
- 📅 By Mar 1, 2026: Federal Register publication (85% probability) • Legal trigger for statutory deadlines and cash deposits
- 📅 By Jun 30, 2026: Commerce final affirmative AD determination (75%) • Expected ~Apr 28, 2026 unless extended • Final rate uncertain (separate market for rate prediction) • Prelim reference point: 132.83%
