Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète14 mars 26, 13:09 UTC30 juin 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Kalshi reduce its taker fees in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the s&p500 trade below 6,100 this year? (Kalshi)
Manifold MarketsWill Kalshi win its lawsuit against Nevada?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Dominos say during their next earnings call?
KalshiFed Decision in September?
PolymarketCPI in August
KalshiRègles
Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- If at least 3 of:
- unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS);
- S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance;
- Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix;
- labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%;
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 90,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,4 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 358,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 35,8 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 548,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 28,8 k €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 79,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,6 k €
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.0pt51.9%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.6%
- 0.1%-3.0pt9.6%
+4 résultats de plus
- CPI core in August
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Annual
- CPI-U index in August
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] doit être résolu le 30 juin 2028.
- Comment Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- Où Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Kalshi.