Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 43 minutes
14 mars 26, 13:09 UTC30 juin 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will something horrible happen to Kalshi deposits by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the s&p500 trade below 6,100 this year? (Kalshi)
Manifold MarketsWould Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
Manifold MarketsWould Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
Manifold MarketsWill 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?
Manifold MarketsWill the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- If at least 3 of:
- unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS);
- S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance;
- Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix;
- labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%;
