Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 23 oct. 2026, 01:36 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 56.4%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 44 minutes
28 sept. 26, 14:22 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ?
Manifold Markets5x ABS(Day Change %(SPCX)) The 1st Market Day After 1st Ship Catch Attempt.
Manifold MarketsWill the first Starship catch attempt target a launch from Pad A, booster catch on tower A, and ship catch on tower B?
Manifold MarketsStarship Flight 15: what happens to the ship? (first tower catch attempt, by Nov 30)
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, during Starship Flight 15, SpaceX makes an active attempt to catch the Starship upper stage (commonly referred to as the "Ship" or second stage) using the mechanical "chopstick" arms of a launch/recovery tower (such as the Mechazilla tower at Starbase, Texas, or another landing site).
- An active catch attempt is defined as the Ship guiding itself back to a landing/recovery tower during its final descent, performing a landing burn over or adjacent to the tower, with the active intention of capture.
- A successful catch resolves YES.
- An unsuccessful catch attempt (e.g., the Ship is actively guided to the tower but crashes, explodes, or misses the chopstick arms during the final capture sequence) resolves YES.
- If a flight director abort is triggered during descent, or if telemetry issues cause the vehicle to intentionally divert to a water splashdown rather than attempting a tower catch, this resolves NO.
