Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ?
Amérique latineOne-OffTechEspace1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 13:19 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète25 juil. 26, 12:23 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will SpaceX execute a ship catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ?
Manifold MarketsWill the first Starship catch attempt target a launch from Pad A, booster catch on tower A, and ship catch on tower B?
Manifold MarketsWill we ever see a failed Starship/Booster catch attempt on the chopsticks? (Before 2030)
Manifold MarketsStarship Flight 15: what happens to the ship? (first tower catch attempt, by Nov 30)
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
PolymarketWhich Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if SpaceX plans and executes a booster catch attempt using the launch tower's "chopstick" arms (Mechazilla) during Starship Flight 15 (the 15th integrated flight test of the Starship/Super Heavy system, also known as IFT-15).
- To resolve as YES:
- SpaceX's official mission profile prior to launch must plan for a return-to-launch-site booster catch, and the booster must launch and perform its return maneuver toward the launch pad/tower.
- This includes successful catches, crashes at the pad/tower, or mid-flight aborts/diversions to a water splashdown for safety reasons (where the catch was actively attempted but waived off during descent, similar to the flight profile of Starship Flight 6).
- This market will resolve to NO if:
