Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.9%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète3 avr. 24, 15:23 UTC1 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce still be in a relationship of some kind at EOY 2026?
Manifold Markets"we're less than six months from a state change of some kind" - Joshua Achiam
Manifold MarketsWhat will the first metropolitan area to live up to some kind of selfgoverning/libertarian dream? before 2035
Manifold MarketsCanada imposes Welland Canal toll on US ships by September 30?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
This will have a subjective resolution, but the things I will be looking for are: Direct comparisons to 9/11 by major international news organizations,
- Featuring at least one major terrorist attack using a ship,
- And evidence of at least ~10% of the death or property damage directly inflicted by actual 9/11.
- [image]This market is inspired by the rising sense of vulnerability to international business represented by shipping logistics and related infrastructure.
- In particular, this market is focusing on the possibility of state or non-state terrorist actors using ships as improvised weapons in a method broadly similar to how planes were used on 9/11.
- A warship being used by a military to launch missiles would not count, even if it has blatantly civilian targets.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 85% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This will have a subjective resolution, but the things I will be looking for are: Direct comparisons to 9/11 by major international news organizations,