Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: 40+ (100%)
Résolu: 10 juil. 2026, 00:20
Données de résolution non vérifiées
Ce résultat est inféré ou n'est pas appuyé par des preuves de règlement de niveau fournisseur.
Prévision communautaire actuelle40+ 100%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 jours
Obsolète25 juin 26, 5:2910 juil. 26, 0:20
Chronologie des Probabilités
40+100%
60+0%
80+0%
100%
0%
0%
Ce marché est clôturé. Le trading fictif n'est disponible que sur les marchés ouverts.
Comparer les plateformes· 40+
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMeilleur global85% de correspondance · vérifié | Élevée | 108% | — | 29,3 k € | 205 k € | il y a 12 minutes | Ouvrir → |
| Polymarket82% de correspondance · vérifié | Moyenne | 100% | — | 7,4 k € | 0 € | il y a 17 jours | Ouvrir → |
| Manifold MarketsCette page | — | 100% | — | — | — | il y a 15 jours |
Également disponible sur Polymarket
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
2.8%5j
+18.1%100%
+2.8%12%
+2.0%8%
+4 résultats de plus
89 • Haute qualitéSpread modéréLiquidité élevéeProche de la résolution
Volume total1,2 M €
Volume 24h29,3 k €
POLYMARKETÉgalement disponible sur Polymarket
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
2.1%Fermés
Résolu
20-40 (100%)
+2.1%100%
0%
-0.3%0%
+2 résultats de plus
72 • Qualité moyenneSpread serréFaible liquidité
Volume total631,7 k €
Volume 24h7,4 k €
POLYMARKETRègles
This market will resolve identically to this one, on Polymarket:
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
- Polymarket rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Grosses transactions
$5.4k96.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205avant-hier
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205avant-hier$1.4k98.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly-7 j
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly-7 j$2.6k51.8%POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profit-12 j
POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profit-12 j$8.6k85.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205-18 j
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205-18 j$3.5k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday77-19 j
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday77-19 j$2.7k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a495-19 j
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a495-19 j$3.9k88.5%POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly-21 j
POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBilly-21 j$1.4k95.6%POLYMARKETNoJasonPunos-25 j
POLYMARKETNoJasonPunos-25 jMarchés Associés
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
2,3 M €July 18: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
743,5 k €August 31: 60%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
511,5 k €Oui: 16%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
244,8 k €Before Sep 1, 2026: 11%
KALSHI
KALSHI
What will Benjamin Netanyahu say during Sunday Morning Futures?
103,1 k €Event does not qualify: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26)
36,2 k €Above 60: 7%KALSHI
KALSHIActifs dans ces sujets
Actualités Associées
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot jumps to 46% to lead Israel PM raceBlockchain.News
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.NewsPolymarket sees 55.5% odds for Iran blockade end by Aug. 31 after Trump jabBlockchain.News
US freezes $131M in Iran-linked crypto as Middle East tensions riseCointelegraphRègles
This market will resolve identically to this one, on Polymarket:
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
- Polymarket rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.