Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 53%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète20 juin 26, 09:17 UTC4 nov. 26, 12:25 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiWill September 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsHeadline PCE inflation in Aug 2026
KalshiCore PCE MoM - August 2026
PolymarketCore PCE YoY - August 2026
PolymarketHow much will core PCE increase in Aug 2026?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026 reports that core PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month.
- Use the PCE price index excluding food and energy in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering September 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month.
- Resolve NO if the initial September 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative.
- Do not use headline PCE, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial September 2026 release before resolution.
- If the September 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the September 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by December 4, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "april_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "april_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "april_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8, "next_release_at_creation": "Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25 at 08:30 AM Eastern; June 2026 scheduled for 2026-07-30; September 2026 scheduled for 2026-11-04.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Core PCE price index percent change from August 2026 to September 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["PCE inflation markets for earlier reference months are prior-reference-month markets, not September 2026 duplicates.", "September 2026 headline PCE inflation uses the all-items PCE price index, while this market excludes food and energy.", "September 2026 headline CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates.", "Headline PCE price-index markets are not duplicates because this market excludes food and energy."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 for 2026-11-04 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026", "series": "PCE price index excluding food and energy", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
- Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA core PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy - BEA headline PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
Marchés ouverts
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 90,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 358,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 35,6 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 554,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 33,8 k €
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation China - Annual
- 0.7% - 0.8%+56.5pt100%
- ≤0.2%-0.5pt0%
- 0.3% - 0.4%-7.3pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+2.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 79,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,6 k €
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI core in August
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- CPI-U index in August
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 53% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month? doit être résolu le 4 novembre 2026.
- Comment Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026 reports that core PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month.