Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 60.3%
Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète1 janv. 26, 18:13 UTC17 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader?
KalshiNigel Farage out as Reform UK Leader before 1st March 2027?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the leader of Reform UK going into the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Reform have been leading in the polls since April 2025.
- However, they are a relatively new party whose main attraction is a single, controversial figure.
- How unstable is the party, and its lead in the polls?
- Resolves YES if Reform UK falls and then stays below 20% in the Politico Poll of Polls for a period of 14 consecutive days, all of which must fall within 2026 (i.e. the streak cannot start after 17th December).
- Otherwise resolves NO on 17th December.
- This requires polling <20% i.e. not <=20%