Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 51.9%
Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 22 heures
Obsolète1 janv. 26, 18:13 UTC17 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK Leader before 1st March 2027?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the leader of Reform UK going into the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Reform UK vote percent
KalshiNext Reform Leader
SmarketsRègles
Reform have been leading in the polls since April 2025.
- However, they are a relatively new party whose main attraction is a single, controversial figure.
- How unstable is the party, and its lead in the polls?
- Resolves YES if Reform UK falls and then stays below 20% in the Politico Poll of Polls for a period of 14 consecutive days, all of which must fall within 2026 (i.e. the streak cannot start after 17th December).
- Otherwise resolves NO on 17th December.
- This requires polling <20% i.e. not <=20%
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 52% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026? doit être résolu le 17 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Reform have been leading in the polls since April 2025.