Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?
US PoliticsOne-Off2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 72.8%
Prévisionnistes
38
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète8 janv. 25, 16:43 UTC1 févr. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
Manifold MarketsWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsHow many times will the Fed raise rates during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiHow many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
KalshiWill Trump be impeached in his second term?
FutuurRègles
This will be resolved based on my judgement of the vibes of top Rationalist voices in 4 years.
- If through their Tweets and Substack posts, I get the sense that they are unhappy with Trump's reforms, and that what got done was extremely damaging, vastly outweighs any benefits, and was worse than what other post WWII presidents have done, then I will resolve YES.
- Otherwise, NO.
- EDIT: This would be judged from 1960 with JFK (68 years before 2028).
- Market will be resolved seriously, even though it is a parody of https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-prominent-rationalists-judge-t#63ou9fccnl4.
- I will try to be as fair and objective as possible.
