Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
One-OffPolitique américainePolitique2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 90%
Prévisionnistes
130
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 25 minutes
9 nov. 24, 19:16 UTC2 nov. 28, 06:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?
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KalshiRègles
This will be resolved based on my judgement of the vibes of top Rationalist voices in 4 years.
- If through their Tweets and Substack posts, I get the sense that they are happy with Trump's reforms, and that what got done was extremely impactful, vastly outweighs any harms, and was more sizable than what other post WWII presidents have accomplished, then I will resolve YES.
- Otherwise, NO.
- EDIT: This would be judged from 1960 with JFK (68 years before 2028).
- Update 2025-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Majority Requirement Clarification:
- A majority of prominent rationalists must hold the view that Trump’s second term was the most positively impactful since 1960.
