Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
One-OffPolitique américainePolitique2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 90%
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130
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
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Mis à jour il y a 46 minutes
En retard9 nov. 24, 19:16 UTC2 nov. 28, 06:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
Manifold MarketsHow many articles will Trump be impeached on in his second term?
KalshiHow many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
KalshiRègles
This will be resolved based on my judgement of the vibes of top Rationalist voices in 4 years.
- If through their Tweets and Substack posts, I get the sense that they are happy with Trump's reforms, and that what got done was extremely impactful, vastly outweighs any harms, and was more sizable than what other post WWII presidents have accomplished, then I will resolve YES.
- Otherwise, NO.
- EDIT: This would be judged from 1960 with JFK (68 years before 2028).
- Update 2025-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Majority Requirement Clarification:
- A majority of prominent rationalists must hold the view that Trump’s second term was the most positively impactful since 1960.
