Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 98.7%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète5 janv. 26, 15:42 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the next country to send a manned flight to the moon
Manifold MarketsWill China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface?
Manifold MarketsWho lands on the Moon next?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump nationalize SpaceX?
KalshiWill Musk deposit SpaceX shares into 10M Trump Accounts?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if humans successfully fly to the Moon (i.e., travel to lunar orbit or land on the lunar surface) before January 1, 2040.
- This includes crewed missions that orbit the Moon or land on it.
- Resolution will be confirmed via official announcements from space agencies (NASA, ESA, CNSA, etc.) or credible news reports from major outlets covering the mission.
- Artemis II is the first crewed mission to the vicinity of the Moon since Apollo 17 in 1972.
- Launch is scheduled for no earlier than February 5, 2026, with the 10-day mission carrying four astronauts on a free-return trajectory around the Moon and back to Earth.
