Prévision communautaire actuelle
US 49.5%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
206
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète19 août 25, 17:17 UTC1 janv. 35, 18:17 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
NASA lands on the moon?
KalshiHow many Starships will launch before a Starship lands on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk lands on the moon anytime through 2029
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWhat will be the next country to send a manned flight to the moon
Manifold MarketsWill China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If the next person to successfully land on the moon is a Chinese citizen, resolves "China"
- If the next person to successfully land on the moon is a US citizen, resolves "US"
- If multiple people successfully land on the moon at the same time and they have different citizenship, resolves proportionally to those citizenships:
- 1) 1 US citizen and 1 Chinese citizen would resolve the market 50% China, 50% US, 0% everything else.
- 2) 1 dual-citizen of US and Canada, and 2 US citizens, would resolve the market 5/6 US, 1/6 Canada, and 0% for everything else)
- This market will be extended until it can be resolved.
