Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 60%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète27 oct. 23, 02:21 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Germany formally exceed NATO's 2% GDP defense spending and deploy troops outside Europe by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsAny of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsWill the US announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops from Europe by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRègles
On Jan 1 2028 I will run a poll asking which city in Europe is the leading European AI hub.
- Only one city will be selected.
- Based on the results of the poll at the end of Jan 7 2028 I will resolve YES if the winning city is Paris.
- Clarification: ‘Europe’ means the continent, as defined geographically, not the EU.
Marchés ouverts
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 617,4 k €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 821,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 107,7 k €
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD+2.0pt78.4%
- SPD-1.0pt21.6%
- CDU0%
+5 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+1.0pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-2.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.8pt1%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Berlin State Election Winner
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
- AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Paris be the hub of AI in Europe by the end of 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 60% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Paris be the hub of AI in Europe by the end of 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Paris be the hub of AI in Europe by the end of 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will Paris be the hub of AI in Europe by the end of 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : On Jan 1 2028 I will run a poll asking which city in Europe is the leading European AI hub.