Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 80%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète18 déc. 25, 22:59 UTC18 déc. 26, 22:49 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
KalshiWill anyone be criminally charged based on evidence from the Epstein files in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat does pizza refer to in Epstein files (in addition to actual pizza food)?
Manifold MarketsIs "jerky" a reference to human meat in Epstein files?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump release more Epstein files in Sep 2026?
KalshiJeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Market Resolution Criteria
- • Yes (Useless): No new Epstein-related federal prosecutions initiated by end date Dec. 31 2026 11:59pm with public statements from DOJ attributing failure to redactions.
- • No (Useful): At least one indictment or guilty plea directly enabled by file contents, confirmed via court dockets.
- This is my first prediction question.
- I will monitor comments for links or input that points toward resolution, above and beyond my own observations.
- Update 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has decided to keep the market open and not resolve early.
Marchés ouverts
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+4.5pt65%
- Yes-4.5pt35%
- Volume total
- 347,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 27,4 k €
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Volume total
- 497,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,5 k €
POLYMARKETNothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Yes+2.0pt83.2%
- No-2.0pt16.8%
- Volume total
- 676 k €
- Volume 24h
- 8,2 k €
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume total
- 9,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 4,6 k €
KALSHIWill Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- No84%
- Yes-1.0pt16%
- Volume total
- 577,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,7 k €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30+1.5pt7%
+3 résultats de plus
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will over-redaction render the Epstein files useless? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 80% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will over-redaction render the Epstein files useless? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will over-redaction render the Epstein files useless? doit être résolu le 18 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will over-redaction render the Epstein files useless? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Market Resolution Criteria