Will "On today's panel with Bernie Sanders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffPolitique américaine1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 21:52 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.2%
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Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète30 avr. 26, 21:27 UTC1 févr. 28, 00:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms?
KalshiWill Bernie Sanders cease to be a US Senator before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will Bernie Sanders endorse for president in 2028 dem primary?
Manifold MarketsWill a US senator, other than Bernie Sanders, identify as a socialist before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Bernie Sanders cease to be a US Senator before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?
KalshiRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post On today's panel with Bernie Sanders is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
