Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.1%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
27 août 26, 03:21 UTC30 sept. 26, 03:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2026 Time POTY be tangentially related to prediction markets at all?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these AI companies will shut down first?
Manifold MarketsLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
PolymarketWill a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
PredictItSports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
PolymarketRègles
Earlier this year, a prediction market conference was forced to leave Las Vegas because Nevada gaming regulators pressured the venue.
- The 51 Alpha Prediction Markets Happy Hour is scheduled for September 29th during the G2E conference.
- This market will resolve YES if the event is forced to cancel, reschedule, or relocate due to casino industry or regulator pressure.
- Media reports and statements by the event organizer will be used to resolve the market.
- If the happy hour occurs on Sept 29 at 5pm PT at the designated venue, then the market will resolve NO.
- The market creator will not trade in this market.
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+0.6pt93%
- Yes-0.6pt7%
- Volume total
- 19,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 210,9 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.0pt80%
- December 15,-4.5pt78%
- November 30,-16.5pt61%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,9 M €
KALSHIWho will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Paramount+16.0pt96.9%
- None before July 2027-16.0pt2.1%
- Netflix-2.0pt1%
- Volume total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-3.0pt24.8%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-1.0pt20.8%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-4.0pt16.8%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt68%
- Before May 1, 2027+6.0pt50%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt46%
+8 résultats de plus
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Florida State vs Alabama
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- LSU vs Ole Miss
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will 'Old Vegas' shut down the 51 Alpha prediction markets happy hour? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 19 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will 'Old Vegas' shut down the 51 Alpha prediction markets happy hour? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will 'Old Vegas' shut down the 51 Alpha prediction markets happy hour? doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment Will 'Old Vegas' shut down the 51 Alpha prediction markets happy hour? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Earlier this year, a prediction market conference was forced to leave Las Vegas because Nevada gaming regulators pressured the venue.