Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?
One-OffETFPlateformes d'échangeEntreprises et affaires26jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 56.7%
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Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
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Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète8 nov. 24, 22:09 UTC8 nov. 26, 07:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRègles
On the Money Stuff column on 7th November, Matt Levine wrote:
- “Design a product for retail investors who want to use prediction markets as a savings device” strikes me as a very good exercise for the reader, and I expect that within two years I will be writing about a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund.
- Will this prediction come true?
- Resolves Yes if Matt Levine talks about the existence of prediction market ETFs on Money Stuff, or an 'equivalent' outlet (eg.
- Money Stuff gets bought out from Bloomberg by another news organisation, or spins off into a separate blog/substack which is Matt Levine's primary outlet.
- Basically not if he tweets about it or mentions it off-hand in an interview or podcast or something), as one of the 'main stories' and not under 'Things happen' (or equivalent)
